5 Reasons Why 2013 was the Best Year in Human History

5 Reasons why 2013 was the best year in human history - a quick summary of an article at http://thinkprogress.org/security/2013/12/11/3036671/2013-certainly-year-human-history/

1. Fewer people are dying young, and more are living longer.
2. Fewer people suffer from extreme poverty, and the world is getting happier.
3. War is becoming rarer and less deadly.
4. Rates of murder and other violent crimes are in free-fall.
5. There’s less racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination in the world.

While this is a good list, I suspect it's incomplete. What else would you add to it? For example, in 2013 there were probably more scientists working to solve more of the world's problems than during any year in history. Other thoughts?

Introduction to Complexity

This is a re-offering of our popular "Introduction to Complexity" course, with some new material, homework, and exams.

In this course you'll learn about the tools used by scientists to understand complex systems. The topics you'll learn about include dynamics, chaos, fractals, information theory, self-organization, agent-based modeling, and networks. You’ll also get a sense of how these topics fit together to help explain how complexity arises and evolves in nature, society, and technology. There are no prerequisites. You don't need a science or math background to take this introductory course; it simply requires an interest in the field and the willingness to participate in a hands-on approach to the subject.

http://www.complexityexplorer.org/online-courses/3

The Effects of Climate Change on Austin and Central Texas

Don't miss The Effects of Climate Change on Austin and Central Texas.

Date: 15 Oct 2013 6:00 PM
Location: Marie Callendar's Restaurant 9503 Research Blvd. Austin, TX 78759

We intent to offer a series of topics covering the future of Austin and Central Texas this year. This month's meeting will be on the the future effects of climate change on Austin and Central Texas in the context of predicted global conditions.  The latest IPCC report on climate change came out just last week, making this a very timely meeting.  Carl Berman will present a talk on this topic, followed by a group discussion. 

Gathering will start at 6pm, with the presentation starting around 7pm.  This is a dinner meeting, with a charge of $20 for members, and $25 for non-members to cover the cost of the dinner and group expenses. 

Carl Berman's biography:

Carl spent 5 years in the US Navy and 25 Years in the NOAA Corps, working as an oceanographer and fisheries biologist for the US Government. He received his Ph.D. in Marine Science from the College of William and Mary in 1983 while on active duty. During this time he served on three ships, the last of which was the ALBATROSS IV which he commanded, and as a project manager with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (of UNESCO), in Paris. Carl Berman's on-line teaching activities include marine biology, general biology, meteorology, geology, environmental change, physical science, and computer science. He has also serve as an in-class lecturer for biology, geology, polar history, and physics. In addition, Carl presented several talks on Polar Exploration to the Life Long Learning Program at the University of Texas. He married Joyce Gioia, a professional speaker and Futurist, in December of 2009. They live in Austin, TX. Carl's interests include RV travel, reading, cooking, music, photography, writing, and riding his "trike."

Please be sure to go online to register for The Effects of Climate Change on Austin and Central Texas

Our Future in Cities

Humanity's future is the future of cities. Explore the crowded favelas, greened-up blocks and futuristic districts that could shape the future of cities -- and take a profane, hilarious side trip to the suburbs.

Stewart Brand: What squatter cities can teach us

Majora Carter: Greening the ghetto

Jaime Lerner: A song of the city

Robert Neuwirth: The hidden world of shadow cities

William McDonough: Cradle to cradle design

Alex Steffen: The shareable future of cities

Paul Romer: Why the world needs charter cities

Kent Larson: Brilliant designs to fit more people in every city

James Howard Kunstler: The ghastly tragedy of the suburbs

A series of nine videos from TED. Clock here to see the whole set or select the ones you want to watch.

Inequality for All

This week marks both the fifth anniversary of the fiscal meltdown that almost tanked the world economy and the second anniversary of Occupy Wall Street, the movement that sparked heightened public awareness of income inequality. Yet the crisis is worse than ever – in the first three years of the recovery, 95 percent of the economic gains have gone only to the top one percent of Americans. And the share of working people in the U.S. who define themselves as lower class is at its highest level in four decades.

More and more are fighting back. According to Robert Reich, Bill Clinton’s secretary of labor: “The core principle is that we want an economy that works for everyone, not just for a small elite. We want equal opportunity, not equality of outcome. We want to make sure that there’s upward mobility again, in our society and in our economy.”

This week, Reich joins Moyers & Company to discuss a new documentary film, Inequality for All, opening next week in theaters across the country. Directed by Jacob Kornbluth, the film aims to be a game-changer in our national discussion of income inequality. Reich, who Time magazine called one of the best cabinet secretaries of the 20th century, stars in this dynamic, witty and entertaining documentary.

A professor at the University of California Berkeley, Reich is the author of thirteen books, including The Work of Nations, which is available in 22 languages; Aftershock and Supercapitalism, which were best sellers; and his latest, Beyond Outrage: What Has Gone Wrong with Our Economy and our Democracy, and How to Fix It. He appears regularly on television and radio – you can hear him on public radio’s Marketplace – and blogs about politics and economics at RobertReich.org.

Watch Interview

American Winter

The idea that certain historic events are cyclical in a central theme in future studies. Nicolai Kondratiev and Strauss & Howe likened this dynamic to the seasons. What generational theorists Strauss & Howe call the Fourth Turning or ‘Crisis’ era is also known as a Kondratiev winter. In other words, a season characterized by decline rather than growth. 

The depression of the 1930s was the last time the country was at this turning. Childhood poverty, one of the most pressing generational problems now in our Crisis/ Kondratiev winter is explored in a recent documentary timely called American Winter.

When in the wealthiest country in the world, between 1/4 and 1/5 of the total child population lives in poverty, it affects a whole generation, even most of the 3/4 who are not poor. Because in this one-strike-and-you’re-out reality everyone but a few financially secure people are just one paycheck, one mortgage payment or one recession away from personal disaster. And if you don’t live in a permanent zen bubble, that knowledge will eat at your nerve endings.

Please watch the trailer below. It will tug at your heartstrings and wet your eyes, but this is more than exaggerated cinematography. It’s actually true for very many families who are falling out of the middle class and into an uncertain future. If you don’t have time to watch the full clip, the dire message here comes about 1:23 minutes in.

Summary of The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change By Al Gore

This a brief summary of the book that was the basis of the talk given by Al Gore on C-Span. You can view the video here. I hope to continue our discussion that began after the group watched the video.

Ours is a time of revolutionary change that has no precedent in recent history. With the same passion he brought to the challenge of climate change, and with his decades of experience on the front lines of global policy, Al Gore surveys our planet’s beclouded horizon and offers a sober, learned, and ultimately hopeful forecast in the visionary tradition of Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock and John Naisbitt’s Megatrends. In The Future, Gore identifies six emerging forces that are reshaping our world:

• Earth Inc.: Ever-increasing economic globalization has led to the emergence of an integrated holistic entity with a new and different relationship to capital, labor, consumer markets, and national governments than in the past.
• The Global Mind: The worldwide digital communications, Internet, and computer revolutions have led to the emergence of “the Global Mind,” which links the thoughts and feelings of billions of people and connects intelligent machines, robots, ubiquitous sensors, and databases.
• Power in the Balance: The balance of global political, economic, and military power is shifting more profoundly than at any time in the last five hundred years—from a U.S.-centered system to one with multiple emerging centers of power, from nation-states to private actors, and from political systems to markets.
• Outgrowth: A deeply flawed economic compass is leading us to unsustainable growth in consumption, pollution flows, and depletion of the planet’s strategic resources of topsoil, freshwater, and living species.
• The Reinvention of Life and Death: Genomic, biotechnology, neuroscience, and life sciences revolutions are radically transforming the fields of medicine, agriculture, and molecular science—and are putting control of evolution in human hands.
• The Edge: There has been a radical disruption of the relationship between human beings and the earth’s ecosystems, along with the beginning of a revolutionary transformation of energy systems, agriculture, transportation, and construction worldwide.

From his earliest days in public life, Al Gore has been warning us of the promise and peril of emergent truths—no matter how “inconvenient” they may seem to be. As absorbing as it is visionary, The Future is a map of the world to come, from a man who has looked ahead before and been proven all too right.

The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change, Al Gore, Random House, 2013, 558pp
Web Site: www.algore.com

A Poet's View of Complexity

A poet's view of complexity:
"Nature gives us shapeless shapes
Clouds and waves and flame
But human expectation
Is that love remains the same
And when it doesn't
We point our fingers
And blame blame blame"
Paul Simon, You're the One

And it's not just love where we look for blame. Almost all human systems are complex systems, and looking for a cause in them is fruitless.

A Map of America's Future: Where Growth Will Be Over the Next Decade

The world's biggest and most dynamic economy derives its strength and resilience from its geographic diversity. Economically, at least, America is not a single country. It is a collection of seven nations and three quasi-independent city-states, each with its own tastes, proclivities, resources and problems. These nations compete with one another--the Great Lakes loses factories to the Southeast, and talent flees the brutal winters and high taxes of the city-state New York for gentler climes--but, more important, they develop synergies, albeit unintentionally. Wealth generated in the humid South or icy northern plains benefits the rest of the country; energy flows from the Dakotas and the Third Coast of Texas and Louisiana; and even as people leave the Northeast, the brightest American children continue to migrate to this great education mecca, as well as those of other nations.

The idea isn't a new one--the author Joel Garreau first proposed a North America of "nine nations" 32 years ago--but it's never been more relevant than it is today, as America's semi-autonomous economic states continue to compete, cooperate ... and thrive. Click on the thumbnail of our map to see our predictions for the job, population and GDP growth of these 10 regional blocks over the next decade, and read on below for more context.

Click here for article.

Conscious Capitalism Austin Chapter

Conscious Capitalism Austin Chapter - Soft Launch Event

On Monday, September 9th we will be having our Austin Chapter Soft Launch Event & Happy Hour at an Austin Conscious Business - Banger's Sausage House & Beer Garden.

To learn more and sign up for the event you can visit our Facebook Page.
https://www.facebook.com/events/185044845011306/

Date: September 9, 2013
Place: Banger's Sausage House & Beer Garden, 79 Rainy Street, Austin, TX 78701
Time: 5-7 pm – with Happy hour specials and BYOD (Bring Your Own Dog). Enjoy half-off all pints

The Austin Chapter of Conscious Capitalism exists to cultivate happiness and to inspire Austin's best business leaders to fulfill Conscious Capitalism. Come have a beer and learn about this movement that shapes purpose-based business and creates value for all. Help us generate our chapter's vision and get involved!

For more information on Conscious Capitalism go to http://www.consciouscapitalism.org/. You may have also heard about this movement in the book, Conscious Capitalism: Liberating the Heroic Spirit of Business.

I hope you can join us and please feel free to forward to all those friends and contacts in your professional network that you think would like to learn more about Conscious Business and the Conscious Capitalism Movement in Austin.

Doing the Innovation Mash

Austin Chapter American Creativity Association
What: SALON evening and gourmet meal experience with Gregg Fraley, Creativity Consultant in England and US, and Cordon Bleu Chef Roger Chan 

Topic: “Doing the Innovation Mash”

When: 6:30 p.m. to 10 p.m., Monday, September 9, 2013

RSVP: by Sunday, September 8th, 2013 to phyllis@aca-austin.org

Where: 1510 Falcon Ledge Drive, Austin, TX 78746

Bring: $10 to throw in the pot for the main course. Additional potluck item optional, and a drink to share. Everyone helps Chef Roger cook shared gourmet meal.

Fraley is a writer, speaker, and consultant in the areas of trends, innovation, and commercial creativity. In 2010, while resident in the UK, he co-founded KILN, a London based firm offering innovation services, and, the trend-based “IdeaKeg” subscription system. IdeaKeg uses trend mash-ups with business challenges to incite breakthrough ideas. KILN sells products and services to clients in Europe and North America. His business novel on creative process, Jack’s Notebook, features on reading lists from the University of California at Berkeley to Cambridge’s Judge Business School. He’s also a noted blogger in the innovation space.

An early career in broadcasting saw him winning an Emmy-award at Warner Cable’s QUBE, where he also earned a cable ACE Award for innovation. After broadcasting Gregg had an entrepreneurial career in the software industry. He was a founder of Advanced Health/Med-E-Systems, and helped design the first wireless prescription system for physicians. Advanced Health went public in 1996. He currently resides in Three Oaks, Michigan, USA.

The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change - An Overview and Group Discussion.

Date: 17 Sep 2013 6:00 PM 

Location: Marie Callendar's Restaurant 9503 Research Blvd. Austin, TX 78759

Welcome back from vacation to the first meeting of the Central Texas Chapter of the World Future Society for the fall season.  

Al Gore recently published a book titled "The Future: Six Drivers of Global Chang".  It is NOT focused on climate change, but on a larger set of future trends and issues that we are facing.  To quote from a review: 

"Ours is a time of revolutionary change that has no precedent in history. With the same passion he brought to the challenge of climate change, and with his decades of experience on the front lines of global policy, Al Gore surveys our planet’s beclouded horizon and offers a sober, learned, and ultimately hopeful forecast"

We originally wanted to do a book review and discussion, but who better to give the book overview than Al Gore himself?  We weren't able to obtain Al Gore for the next meeting, but we did obtain a video of him giving an insightful and entertaining overview of his book.  We will watch the video during dinner, followed by a lively group discussion afterwards.  This should be a fun and relaxing way to start of the new year for our chapter. 

Best regards, 

Central Texas Chapter of the World Future Society

Please be sure to go online to register for The Future: Six Drivers of Global Chang - An Overview and Group Discussion 

Education and Critical Thinking

The End Game for Democracy

America's Gilded Capital

Mark Leibovich covers Washington, D.C., as chief national correspondent for The New York Times Magazine. In his new book, This Town, he writes about the city’s bipartisan lust for power, cash and notoriety. It’s the story of how Washington became an occupied city; its hold on reality distorted by greed and ambition. Leibovich pulls no punches, names names, and reveals the movers, the shakers and the lucrative deals they make — all in the name of crony capitalism.

http://billmoyers.com/episode/full-show-mark-leibovich-on-americas-gilded-capital/

Big Debt on Campus

As our public education goes, so goes our country. From Mother Jones, September, 2013

Thinking Critically

Frank Smith in his book To Think refers to the work of Ennis[1] in determining attributes of critical thinking: Grasping the meaning of a statement and judging whether 

•  there is ambiguity in a line of reasoning 
•   certain statements contradict each other 
•  a conclusion necessarily follows 
•  a statement is specific enough 
•  a statement is actually the application of a certain principle 
•  an observation statement is reliable 
•  an inductive[2] conclusion is warranted
• the problem has been identified  
•  something is an assumption 
•  a definition is adequate 
•  a statement made by an alleged authority is acceptable

Ennis defines critical thinking as “determining the authenticity, accuracy, and worth of information or knowledge claims.”[3]

Smith basically thinks that critical thinking is not a skill, but a disposition and requires knowledge of the subject and the authority to think critically, even if that is granted by the person doing the thinking.

“Critical and creative thinking may be viewed academically as unique mental activities, in which individuals can be deficient, but the elements of thinking critically and creatively are in everyone's behavioral and cognitive repertoire. People may often not appear to be thinking critically or creatively because they are often not in situations that permit or call for criticism or creativity, or because they are not disposed to behave critically or creatively in such situations. This does not mean that some individuals are totally incapable of thinking critically or creatively, or that they lack training. It is just that they are not thinking in those ways, for one reason or another.”

He explains further:

“If critical thinking is not a unique set of skills, if it is essentially something that everyone is capable of, that everyone does in some measure all the time, why does critical thinking-or its apparent absence attract such attention? I have a few more remarks to make about specific knowledge[4], which is at the heart of the ability to be a critical thinker. But there are two other factors to take into account in explaining why some people might not appear to be as critical in their thought as they might be. One of them I have briefly alluded to already, the matter of disposition[5]. The other is more contentious-the extent to which anyone is allowed to be a critical thinker. In other words-how serious all this talk about critical thinking is in the first place.”

The author expands his comments on knowledge:

“Critical thinking does not demand a complex array of learned skills, but competence in whatever you are thinking about. If you understand cooking, you can be critical of the way a meal is prepared. If you are an experienced football fan, you can criticize a football game. If you are a particular kind of engineer, you can criticize the way a bridge or a ship has been built. If you are unable to do any of these things, it will not be because you lack essential critical thinking skills, but because you lack the essential experience. You do not know enough.”

He concludes that critical thinking is a disposition – “a tendency to behave in particular ways on particular occasions.” “Critical thinking is an attitude, a frame of mind.” “…reflective skepticism – the judicious suspension of assent, a readiness to consider alternative explanations, not taking anything for granted when it might be reasonable to doubt.”

“Critical thinking reflects the way we perceive the world; its concern is not with the solution of "problems" but with the recognition of prejudices and biases-including our own. The beginning must be the old Greek adage ‘Know yourself.’"

“Critical thinkers are often not popular. The right to engage in critical thought is not distributed equally, especially in hierarchical, authoritarian, and bureaucratic societies. You could lose your job or your promotion, or your colleagues might find you less agreeable to work with.”

“Critical thinkers are critical; they are argumentative and unsettling; they rock the boat. They can have difficulty treading the line between constructive inquiry and nitpicking trouble-making. They may not always be comfortable to know.”

He closes the chapter with this admonition:

“Critical thinkers must not only reason, they must give reasons; they must not only evaluate arguments, they must argue. They must recognize, and engage in, techniques of persuasion. Effective critical thought is largely a rhetorical[6] exercise. Uncritical passivity in thought and expression go hand in hand.

There is no doubt that the world could do with much more critical thinking. If critical thinking leads to better judgments, fewer problems, and happier consequences, then it is not just children and youth that are in need. It is unlikely that they will become better thinkers by uncritically emulating adults. The development of critical thinking requires a major shift across the generations, and the basis of that shift-if it is not to be catastrophic-must be through language.”

To Think, Frank Smith, Teachers College Press, 1990, 181 pp

Read my summary of To Think at:  http://www.scribd.com/doc/163221519/To-Think

---

[1] Ennis, Robert H. (1962). A Concept of Critical Thinking, Harvard Educational Review, 32 (1), 82 -83

[2] Inductive reasoning (as opposed to deductive reasoning) is reasoning in which the premises seek to supply strong evidence for (not absolute proof of) the truth of the conclusion. While the conclusion of a deductive argument is supposed to be certain, the truth of an inductive argument is supposed to be probable, based upon the evidence given. Wikipedia

[3] The author never mentions the ability to perceive when someone is lying. I think that this needs to be covered specifically and will do so in a separate article.

[4] Knowledge is a familiarity with someone or something, which can include information, facts, descriptions, or skills acquired through experience or education. It can refer to the theoretical or practical understanding of a subject. It can be implicit (as with practical skill or expertise) or explicit (as with the theoretical understanding of a subject); it can be more or less formal or systematic. In philosophy, the study of knowledge is called epistemology; the philosopher Plato famously defined knowledge as "justified true belief." However, no single agreed upon definition of knowledge exists, though there are numerous theories to explain it. Knowledge acquisition involves complex cognitive processes: perception, communication, association and reasoning; while knowledge is also said to be related to the capacity of acknowledgment in human beings. Wikipedia

[5] A disposition is a habit, a preparation, a state of readiness, or a tendency to act in a specified way. Wikipedia

[6] Rhetoric is the art of discourse, an art that aims to improve the capability of writers or speakers that attempt to inform, persuade, or motivate particular audiences in specific situations. As a subject of formal study and a productive civic practice, rhetoric has played a central role in the Western tradition. Its best known definition comes from Aristotle, who considers it a counterpart of both logic and politics, and calls it "the faculty of observing in any given case the available means of persuasion." Rhetorics typically provide heuristics for understanding, discovering, and developing arguments for particular situations, such as Aristotle's three persuasive audience appeals, logos, pathos, and ethos. The five canons of rhetoric, which trace the traditional tasks in designing a persuasive speech, were first codified in classical Rome: invention, arrangement, style, memory, and delivery. Along with grammar and logic (or dialectic), rhetoric is one of the three ancient arts of discourse. From Ancient Greece to the late 19th century, it was a central part of Western education, filling the need to train public speakers and writers to move audiences to action with arguments.

Critical Thinking Class

A course of DVDs and discussions. Lectures delivered by Steven Novella in a series called "Your Deceptive Mind" Part 1 covers lectures 1-14 and Part 2 (a separate course) covers 15-24.

Tentative schedule below (subject to change)

Your Deceptive Mind with Steven Novella

Fall 2013

Part 1 (7 classes)

Sep 12  Class 1: The Necessity of Thinking about Thinking and The Neuroscience of Belief

Sep 19  Class 2: Errors of Perception and Flaws and Fabrications of Memory

Sep 26  Class 3: Pattern Recognition – Seeing What’s Not There and Our Constructed Reality

Oct 3  Class 4: The Structure and Purpose of Argument and Logic and Logical Fallacies

Oct 10 Class 5: Heuristics and Cognitive Biases and Poor at Probability – Our Innate Innumeracy

Oct 17  Class 6: Toward Better Estimates of What’s Probable and Culture and Mass Delusions

Oct 24 Class 7: Philosophy and Presuppositions of Science and Science and the Supernatural

Part 2 (5 classes)

Nov 7  Class 1: Varieties and Quality of Scientific Evidence and Great Scientific Blunders

Nov 14  Class 2: Science vs. Pseudoscience and The Many Kinds of Pseudoscience

Nov 21  Class 3: The Trap of Grand Conspiracy Thinking and Denialism – Rejecting Science and History

Dec 5  Class 4: Marketing, Scams, and Urban Legends and Science, Media, and Democracy

Dec 12  Class 5: Experts and Scientific Consensus and Critical Thinking and Science in Your Life

Cost is $20 for either part and $30 for both. $5 for a single class.

For more information go to  http://www.meetup.com/cfiaustin/events/120710772/

Critical Thinking?

Any implication for critical thinking?

Two American Families: Complexity At Work?

It’s a central premise of the American dream: If you’re willing to work hard, you’ll be able to make a living and build a better life for your children. But what if working hard isn’t enough to ensure success — or even the basic necessities of daily life?

FRONTLINE’s Two American Families follows two ordinary families who have spent the past 20 years in an extraordinary battle to keep from sliding into poverty.

The film, a collaboration with veteran PBS journalist Bill Moyers, who has followed the Stanleys and the Neumanns over the years, raises unsettling questions about the changing nature of the American economy and the fate of a declining middle class.

“He will not be able to see the retirement, you know, that he probably would hope for when he was working at A.O. Smith,” say Keith Stanley, the son of Claude Stanley who was laid off from a steady, good paying job in the early ’90s. “That’s just not a reality. My heart goes out to that generation that was promised something from America, by America, that they would have a better life and that’s not the case anymore.”

Here's my comments on the structural change and the implications if the system that changed is a complex system in a critical state. Click to listen.